Economic uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff policies has led to a sharp deterioration in U.S. consumer sentiment in April, according to the Conference Board.
On April 29 (local time), the Conference Board reported that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for April fell to 86.0 (based on a 1985 benchmark of 100), down 7.9 points from March. The decline was steeper than the previous month and fell below the 87.3 forecasted by Dow Jones analysts.
The Consumer Confidence Index has been declining for five consecutive months since December of last year, signaling a significant worsening of consumer sentiment.
Notably, the "Expectations Index," which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, plummeted 12.5 points to 54.4, marking its lowest level since October 2011, over 13 years ago.
Concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff policies will burden the economy have contributed to the erosion of consumer confidence.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at the Conference Board, stated, “All three components of expectations—business conditions, employment outlook, and future income—deteriorated significantly, reflecting widespread pessimism about the future.” She added, “In particular, the proportion of consumers expecting job losses in the next six months reached 32.1%, a level comparable to April 2009 during the financial crisis.”
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is a “soft” economic indicator based on survey responses, distinct from “hard” indicators grounded in actual economic activities such as employment, consumption, and investment. However, it is considered a leading indicator of real economic activity as it reflects the sentiment of economic actors.